Successful Hold’em players are often depicted with cigar smoke circling round their heads, and a cocky expression on their face as if they have occult mental powers that enable them both to know when their opponents are bluffing, and what the flop has in store.
The truth is that they do have knowledge that you don’t possess – yet. The truth is that their cockiness comes, in large part, from knowing the odds.
Come on, admit it: even if you are fairly well versed in the value of various power poker hands, you really don’t know the odds that you will be able to make a particular hand. And without that knowledge you really don’t know when or how strongly to bet. If you’re not confident of your chances – especially from the flop forward, you probably won’t stick around long enough in each hand, to have a shot at big winnings.
The skill you need to develop is called ‘Counting the Outs’.
Outs are cards that give you the hand you are hoping for.
For example… you are dealt two diamonds and on the flop two more diamonds appear. Assuming that there’s no possibility of a better hand for you than a flush, how many outs do you have? In this case counting the outs is simple: you have four of the 13 total diamonds available, so there are nine possible outs.
Consider the difference between going for a ‘gut-shot’ straight draw and an ‘open-ended ‘ straight draw. The ‘gut-shot’ draw is missing one card in the middle to complete the draw. Only one card can make that draw happen – so you have four chances (1×4), or outs. The ‘open-ended’ draw is four cards that can make a straight if they get the right card on either end. Therefore there are eight outs (2×4).
Which is the better bet? The gut shot, or the open-ended straight draw?
Let’s make it even simpler. After the flop all you’ve got is a pair of Twos. What are your odds of getting a third, to make a set? How many Twos are in the deck? Four! Minus the two you already have, you are left with two Outs. Get it? And if you have only two outs (or chances) to make a set, that’s not exactly something to bet the house on.
Of course what makes poetry interesting is that, if you know the odds of the outs, and your opponents knows that you do, it becomes a bit easier to bluff. But that’s another story, for another time.
For now, make yourself a chart of possible hands and flops, and figure out the outs.
Remember too, that as you are figuring out your outs, you should also be considering what your opponents might be able to do with the flop. It may be that some of the cards that you are looking for, could make their hand as well. The rule here would be to subtract those cards from your total outs.
Once you know your outs, you’re going to be in on some big pots. Once you know your outs that guy with the cocky, close-mouthed grin – that guy will be you!